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congratulations to the winners of the2011 Marykathryn Kubat Award for Graduate Student Research.With the Kubat Award, AABPA seeks to encourage student research and critical thinking that will prepare students for the budget and program issues they will encounter in their careers, particularly those in the public service. The 2011 winners of the award are Sarah M. Ammar, American University School of Public Affairs and Nicole Buell and John Tortorella, Duke University Nicholas School for the Environment.
Sarah M. Ammar, American University School of Public Affairs The Creative Economy: Finding New Solutions to Old Problems With the United States climbing out of a recession, regions across the country are struggling to restart their respective economies. The relatively new field studying the knowledge economy or “creative economy,” suggests that traditional economic inputs are no longer the driving force of regional economies, but rather the ideas and innovations of the people within those economies that drive them forward. In other words, according to creative economy notions, jurisdictions looking for effective economic development policies should focus on the cultivation of an environment that seeks to incubate the creativity of its residents and businesses. To date, many cities struggling with how to reverse certain economic trends have applied traditional approaches such as tax incentives for businesses to relocate, but do not consider implementing policies that consider “creative economy” approaches. In an effort to begin understanding the creative economy from a quantitative point of view, this research addresses how certain creative characteristics of a region will affect its economic output. The creative economy characteristics examined have been drawn from urban theorist Richard Florida’s book The Rise of the Creative Class (2004). For the purposes of this study, economic output is measured by each region’s gross domestic product. Using multivariate ordinary least squares regression analyses, key findings of this research support the notion that overall regional creativity corresponds to an increase in GDP; tolerance for the gay community, foreign-born individuals, and various ethnic groups corresponds to an increase in GDP; and higher income gaps correspond to higher GDP. Given these results, it would behoove policy-makers to consider cultural policy designs that take “creative economy” factors into account. In addition to traditional business incentives, policy-makers may want to reconsider the value of attracting the small business, or creating niche markets in their jurisdictions.
Nicole Buell and John Tortorella, Duke University Nicholas School for the Environment An Analysis of the Program Assessment Rating Tool: Evaluating the Performance of the Federal Environmental and Natural Resource Programs Interest in, and use of, performance evaluation tools in the federal government has increased over the past two decades as a mechanism to gauge the effectiveness of federal programs. An effective evaluation system can improve government performance in many ways including boosting outcomes, strengthening accountability, and enhancing process transparency. A well-developed and consistently applied performance evaluation system can also assist in the identification of programs that excel and those that do not achieve their intended results. This research aimed to analyze one such performance evaluation tool, the Office of Management and Budget’s Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART), by examining a subset of programs concerned with the environment and natural resources. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of PART as a means to hold agencies accountable for their performance. We examined the quality of goals, measures, and evidence provided by programs in their PART reviews as well as the relationship between PART ratings and budgetary allocations. Focusing on a subset of 167 natural resource and environmental program PARTs, we hypothesized that overall PART ratings would be positively correlated with federal funding as well as the quality of the supporting evidence provided for each program. Using multiple regressions, we found that the quality of evidence was indeed correlated with the final assessment ratings, but that there was no correlation between ratings and budget decisions. In light of the retirement of the PART program and the recent codification of the Government Performance and Results Act Modernization Act (GPRAMA) of 2010 we aimed to provided implications to the future of performance evaluation in the government. We recommend an increased focus on performance education and information transparency, and recommend an increased emphasis on the “management” in OMB to increase the effectiveness of performance evaluation tools. 2011 FinalistsSarah M. Ammar, American University School of Public Affairs: The Creative Economy: Finding New Solutions to Old Problems Nicole Buell and John Tortorella, Duke University Nicholas School for the Environment: An Analysis of the Program Assessment Rating Tool: Evaluating the Performance of the Federal Environmental and Natural Resource Programs Andrew Charles Gall, American University School of Public Policy: Cyclical Deficits and Subnational Governments: American Federalism's Deleterious Effect of Countercyclical Spending Rebecca Rose Nolan, University of Maryland School of Public Policy: Intergenerational Implications of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Michelle Sahloff, University of Pittsburgh School of Public Affairs: Budgetary Reform Changing Corruption Perception 2010 Winners Amanda Parker, American University Measure Twice, Cut Once: Examining the Impact of Budget Cuts on Student Success Due to the recent economic downturn tough budget decisions are on the horizon in every state and public education budgets are on the chopping block. This is a cause for concern for parents, teachers and administrators. As education funding to states from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act expires, states will need to make informed decisions regarding these unavoidable budget cuts. Therefore, decision makers must understand how educational expenditures impact learning outcomes in order to minimize potentially damaging consequences to students. Much research has been done to understand how changes in class size, per pupil expenditures and teachers salaries can have an impact on student outcomes. This analysis makes the link between public education expenditures and learning outcomes more explicit. This research examines the relationship between student learning and educational expenditures using state level data. National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scores for mathematics and reading are used as measures of student success. Five distinct types of expenditures are examined in this analysis: (1) Total instructional expenditures on salaries; (2) Student support expenditures; (3) General administration expenditures; (4) School administration expenditures; and (5) Expenditures on operations and maintenance. I use Ordinary Lease Squares regression in this study in order to understand the impact of expenditures on student success, with an aim to inform budget policy at the state level. In this era of data-driven reform, service cuts or tax increases must be based on facts, not politics. This research adds a critical human element to the budget. By presenting financial decisions in terms of direct student outcomes and not just dollars, policy decisions can be made with an eye towards weathering the current crisis and preventing critical budget shortfalls in the future.
Robin Ghertner, The Trachtenberg School of Public Policy and Public Administration, The George Washington University Gains to Guestworkers: The Social Welfare Consequences of the Y Visa Program in S.1639 Most proposals for immigration reform include temporary visas for foreign workers (guestworkers) in low-skill occupations, in part to offset planned reductions in undocumented immigration. This cost-benefit analysis examines a policy from the 2007 Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act, introduced by the late Senator Kennedy. The visa would have provided an estimated 440,000 workers annually, increasing the US low-skilled workforce by 3.5%. To conduct the analysis, I employ established economic techniques, empirical estimates, and budgetary analysis to measure the increase and transfer of social surplus among actors, as well as the fiscal consequences. I consider US and global welfare, taking into account the benefits to guestworker-sending countries through remittances. I find an unambiguous net benefit to all actors, making the policy desirable on economic grounds. Over the policy’s twelve-year life, the US gains on average between $43 and $45 billion annually, around 0.3% of national income. The average annual gain to guestworkers is $2.74 billion. Sending countries on average gain between $1.84 and $3.5 billion per year, and global welfare gains are around $48 billion, or 0.09% of global GDP. These net benefits hide the distributional impact in the US. An increase in labor would lower wages, causing a transfer of between $2.97 and $8.82 billion on average per year from low-skilled labor to other factors of production. Around 84,000 US workers per year would be displaced. Aside from the direct economic consequences, because of the overall global benefits, the program also opens the possibility of bilateral or multilateral agreements between the United States and sending countries. However, the program does little to reduce undocumented immigration, and may in fact increase the number of undocumented immigrants. In part due to increased US labor market experience and diminished home country experience, each guestworker has an incentive to remain in the country after the visa expires, cancelling out any reduction in undocumented immigrants resulting from the policy. 2010 FinalistsRobert Edward Allison, West Virginia University Tax Progressivity and Human Development: An Exploratory Analysis Andres Antonio Carried,George Washington University Improving the Budget Treatment of Federal Defined Benefit Pension Plans and Other Post-Employment Benefits Spencer Deery, George Washington University The Supplemental Appropriation: An Avoidable Weakness of Responsible Budgeting Robin Ghertner, George Washington University Gains to Guestworkers: The Social Welfare Consequences of the Y Visa Program in S.1639 Amanda Parker, American University Measure Twice, Cut Once: Examining the Impact of Budget Cuts on Student Success Ying Tan, Ohio University FY 2004-FY 2008 Budgeting Report for the Ohio State School for the Blind Rebecca F. Vertes, George Washington University Cost Benefit Analysis of the eligibility requirement change in the Weatherization Assistance Program |
